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Recession

  • In case you missed it

    My roundup of the five must-read articles this week. (Drum-roll, please!)

    1. After the bust. Here’s what you really should have learned. The Lehman Brothers collapse a year ago set off the global financial meltdown. On its anniversary there’s been no shortage of experts summing up the lessons learned. I think these nine from the Canadian Capitalist blog are the most useful for the average Joe.

    2. Pay off your mortgage or invest? Which should you do first?Like the chicken and egg argument, people can’t seem to agree. But this articlein the Globe and Mail makes a superb case for eliminating the house debt first.

    3. Don’t listen to this kind of advice. Investment industry veteran David West has good advice on how to avoid bad advice when buying stocks this fall. Click here.

    4. To paraphrase Jack Nicholson, “You CAN’T HANDLE the truth about stocks!” Except in this case the part of Jack Nicholson is played by Zvi Bodie, author of Worry-Free Investing. Check out this enjoyable Q&A here.

    5. A zippy recovery after all? As the recession plods onward, many have concluded that what we’re in for is not a quick bounce-back, but a dreary, slow recovery. Yet history shows there’s room for optimism, says James Grant. Click here.

  • Nice place to live, not to invest

    Just as Americans are obsessed with guns, Canadians have an equally unhealthy relationship with real estate. And by real estate I mean our crazy expectations of home prices.

    Don’t believe me? Just try telling people on your street their homes are worth a lot less than a year ago. All I can say is, don’t expect an invite to the neighborhood barbecue this summer. It seems Canadians believe there’s a clause in the Constitution guaranteeing home prices will always go up…. and up and up.

    As a homeowner who thinks house values have dropped (and will likely go down some more), I’m fascinated by the conflicting studies out there on this topic, as reported in the National Post.

    One the one side we have the Canadian Real Estate Association. CREA says average home prices shot up 16.7% from January to May, to a record $320,000. In effect, the housing market is back to pre-recession levels. (And we didn’t even have to invoke the notwithstanding clause to do it. How great is that?)

    On the other side, Statistics Canada says new-home prices are down 3.2% since last September, while the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index says home values are down 8.9% from last summer. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development goes even further. It calculated an 11% drop in the first quarter of 2009.

    I’m with the pessimists on this one. In fact, I’d say the CREA numbers are downright loopy. How do you explain an almost 17% hike in real estate prices in the same month that the national unemployment rate reached its highest level in more than a decade? If the CREA numbers are true, we’re stuck in a Bizarro World recession–one where people are afraid of losing their jobs, and have all but stopped buying clothes and cars, yet are confident enough to slap a down payment on a four bedroom, two-bath Colonial.

    Feel free to disagree with me, of course. But let me make this suggestion: Unless you plan to sell your home in the next little while, forget about what it’s worth.

    Instead, think of your home for what it is: a place to live. The biggest mistake many Canadians made these last few years was to assume that because home prices were going up, they were getting wealthier. So they raided their line of credit to renovate, or go shopping, or just pay the bills. Hopefully we won’t make that mistake again, even if home prices do start to rise.

    If you want to feel rich these days, start putting your money in the bank. And stop thinking you can take it out of your home.

     

     

  • To your well-being

    “Hi, how are you?” I get asked that question a few times a day from friends and co-workers. You too? If you’re like me, you automatically shoot back with “good” or “just fine, thanks,” even if your dog just died that morning.

    But let’s do away with politeness for a second. How are you? Really?

    If you take Canadians as a whole, it’s hard to answer. The economy is in the tank, of course. Unemployment is still rising. Strangely, however, consumer confidence is improving. It’s at its highest level since February 2008. Seems people think the recession is almost over.

    The hard numbers don’t bear that out. Which leads to a good question: Should we only rely on economic data like gross domestic product and the unemployment rate to judge how well Canadians are doing?

    There’s a new organization out there that says no. The Institute of Wellbeing is calling for a new yardstick to measure how well off we are. Led by former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow and affiliated with the University of Waterloo, it’s putting together something called the Canadian Index of Wellbeing. The index is calculated by measuring eight factors including living standards, how involved we are in the community, education, health, and what we do with our time.

    Romanow and company say they’ll be able to measure whether our well-being is improving or declining by examining these factors. The usual benchmark, GDP, only measures a country’s income, not how well off its citizens are.

    I’m not sure I agree with that assessment (more about that later), but in its first report the Institute of Wellbeing has come out with some insights worth noting.

    The most important is that Canadians didn’t benefit much from surges in the economy over the last quarter century. Simply put, wages didn’t keep pace with economic growth. Between 1981 and 2008 real GDP per capita grew by 53%. Personal income grew 36% and personal disposable income 29%.

    It’s worth pointing out that some of those wage gains were the result of people working longer hours, not from generous raises. Plus, cuts to government health-care programs mean we’re paying way more ourselves for medical care, not to mention more in taxes. You can read more about these issues here.

    Another good point in the report: Good-paying jobs for teens and young adults have been disappearing. In 1980, 31% of people 14 to 24 worked in low-paying jobs. By 2000 that number was 45%. That’s bad news for university grads racking up debt to get an education. If all that awaits them is minimum wage, what’s the point of getting a degree?

    Some other findings from this report: We’re living longer and overall we’re wealthier. That’s good. But we’re also getting fatter and, frankly, most of don’t feel as healthy as we used to. We also have fewer close friends.

    The Institute of Wellbeing hasn’t issued its index yet, so we’ll have to wait and see whether Canadians’ quality of life has improved since 1994, which is the base year the index will be calculated back to. Still, it will be interesting to see how this new measurement moves up and down as we wind our way through the rest of this recession and into recovery.

    My guess: It will probably closely follow GDP. Money may not buy happiness but it does buy security. And Canadians always feel more secure when they have a job, the economy is growing and they have money to buy a house, a car and all the things that go with a nice middle-class lifestyle.

    You can’t even count on your health without money these days. Studies show that the higher your household income, the longer you’ll live and the better your health.

    So here’s to your well-being. And your bank account.

     

  • The joy of saving

    An interesting survey crossed my desk the other day contrasting the current mood of savers to the rest of the population. Savers–those people who are religious about putting a portion of their paycheque into a retirement or savings account–are surprisingly upbeat these days. The recession has barely fazed them.

    According to the survey, which was done in the U.S. for HSBC bank, most savers haven’t chopped their spending. They eat out just as often now as when the Dow hit 14,000. As for holding back on large purchases, forget it. If they need a new car, or a new fridge, or TV set, they buy it. Less than a third think cutting back spending would improve their financial situation.

    The truth is that people who regularly set aside money have little reason to panic. First, they have gotten used to living on less already. (Most bank 10% or more of each paycheque.) Second, with all that money saved, they’re able to deal with a host of emergencies–everything from a leaky roof to losing their job–better than most.

    The interesting thing about savers is they’re not saving for anything in particular. You can’t say the same about non-savers. For instance, 30% of non-savers set aside money for their vacation. Only 18% of savers do that. In other words, savers save because it’s a good idea. Non-savers do it to blow the money later.

    You’d think this recession has taught us all to become savers. Unfortunately, that may be asking too much. As the HSBC study found, the majority of people polled (85%) are now trying to save more and spend less. But almost three-quarters of them have no qualms returning to their spendthrift ways once the economy improves.

  • Is a buyout a good deal?

    You may walk away with several months of pay. But buyout offers are rarely as tempting as they look.

  • Health: GDP down, muscle up

    Why recessions may actually improve our health.

  • Wine: In praise of plonk

    You can drink even better on a budget.

  • Books and blogs: Bite club

    What caused the financial crisis? These books and blogs chew over the problem.

  • Repeat after me…

    After years of helping people quit smoking, hypnotists are now helping us deal with a recession.

  • Investing: The case for optimism

    Investors are frightened, which is why now is the best time to buy stocks.